The beginning
USA/Israel’s Twelve-Day War of Aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran shook the world.
There are many strategic and tactical lessons to be learnt on how a small nation can counterattack the most powerful army in the world. Some of the lessons are:
- The defending army has to have the moral and material support of its people.
The primary weapon of both the army and its people should be faith in their incorrigible belief.
Self-reliance on their own capabilities and capacities to endure a long-drawn-out struggle.
To mobilize the external support of the international community.
The defending army to acknowledge its own internal weaknesses and correct them even as they engage in body-to-body combat.
Iran had an outdated Air Force, which it inherited from the old feudal House of Shah in 1979.
The sovereignty of its cyberspace was compromised by using the satellite navigation system or GPS owned by the USA Army.
Its reliance on WhatsApp betrayed the physical locations of its military leaders and scientists.
The USA harboured real concerns about the new strategic railway line that connects Iran and China.
The 25-year Cooperation Agreement between Iran and China (2021) provides for Chinese investment in the Iranian economy – in energy, infrastructure, transport, digital technology, advanced industry and more.
USA also expressed concerns about the increased shipping costs in time and money associated with the closing of the Straits of Hormuz.
Iran used the element of surprise by withdrawing from IAEA until the security of its peaceful nuclear facilities is guaranteed by IAEA member states.
The 12-Day-War was sufficient in its shaking to generate tremors for the further strategic strengthening of the Global South and the further strategic weakening of the 80-year-old imperial hegemon.
In moving forward Iran needs to know objectively the technical, geological, and radiological damages done, especially, to its subterranean Fordow nuclear facility – for the sake of enriching scientific knowledge.
Iran is the legal, historical, and moral owner not only of its surface but also of its subterranean land. The earliest known study of the subterranean land was conducted in 1963 when the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) had discovered hydrocarbons (1950s) in the Qom Formation, where the Fordow facility is located strategically to withstand earthquakes and bombing. The Formation is prone to earthquakes. The thickness of the Formation varies between 294m to 1200m. The Formation contained the Alborz Field, which by 2007 had its hydrocarbons depleted and the Field was abandoned. The Field is situated about 140km to the southwest of Tehran. It has an anticline of 900m in height. (GeoArabia, Vol.12. No.4, 2007; Gulf PetroLink, Bahrain: Alireza Shakeri, Jalal Douraghinejad, Mehran Moradpour – published with the permission of NIOC and the Research Institute of the Petroleum Industry)
The core secret state knowledge is known only to those Iranians who are entrusted with it. But Iran lacks the expertise and advanced forensic tools for the accurate objective assessment of the damages. The challenging factors are the unique geological surface and subterranean structures, the concrete reinforcement, sub-surface imaging, and the dispersal of the enrichment centrifuges. Iran lacks such assets. It has to turn to China for assistance because it is the only country that has them. (Prof Phar Kim Beng, ASEAN Studies at the International Islamic University Malaysia: Jakarta Post: 25 June 2025)
Global South (GS) solidarity comes into operation and adds new dimension to geopolitical interrelationships. China is an indispensable force that even the Global North (GN) may have to use its assets in the future. This will enrich diplomacy, dialogue, discourse, cooperation, and scientific objectivity across the GS-GN divide.
The 12-Day shaking of the world extends well beyond the twelve days and the region. Even small nations can wield technological power beyond the size of their population. Reliance on exclusive military power and assassinations is outdated, as demonstrated by the aggressors. Iran’s strength was its restraint and ability to respond to aggression with measured proportionality according to the laws of war – no matter the intensity of the aggression.
Until the results of a scientific investigation are known all else is speculation.
Iran’s aerial guerrilla warfare
Iran used only 5% of its defence units while unleashing its squadrons of drones, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles towards nuclear, military, and industrial targets. In the process Iran exposed the vulnerability of Israel’s not-so-clever military-civilian urban planning – as a civilian protection for its military assets.
The USA activated no fewer than two of its global stock of seven THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) missile platforms to deflect the Iranian counterattacks when it became clear on the 9th day that Israel had depleted its supply of deflective missiles and it was facing certain military defeat. It reportedly cost American taxpayers $800-million for a foreign 3-Day war adventure – let alone the other 9-Day costs.
While the THAAD is designed to deflect high-altitude ballistic missiles, Iran’s low-altitude projectiles and hypersonic ballistic missiles outmatched THAAD. Iran fired mass salvoes of drones at USA missile system. On June 18 Iran fired a barrage over Tel Aviv that over-engaged THAAD with confronting decoys and non-critical targets. While THAAD was bringing down decoys the real Iranian missiles found gaps to reach real targets. It was new aerial guerrilla warfare – sustained by 22 waves of retaliatory missile counterattacks.
The USA used six imprecise bunker-buster bombs against Fordow with B-2 bombers and submarine-launched cruise missiles against Natanz and Isfahan facilities. It deployed 125 aircrafts. The bombs are overdesigned with steel that ignores the use of nanotechnology to reduce the weight. It weighs 30000lb, of which 25000lb is steel and only 5000lb (16,67%) is explosive. They were used to demonstrate USA’s imperial power to China and Russia – never mind the military defeat that Ukraine is facing, as the proxy army of USA, NATO, and EU.
Iran had adequate human and material resources to prolong the war for several years while holding its ground forces in reserve.
Mao Zedong, the master guerrilla warfare strategist, said in 1970, ‘A weak nation can defeat a strong nation; a small nation can defeat a big nation. The people of a small country can certainly defeat aggression by a big country, if only they dare to rise in struggle, take up arms and grasp in their own hands the destiny of their country – this is the law of history.’
Mr Netanyahu’s personal objectives
Mr Netanyahu repeatedly stated his four objectives:
- dismantle Iran’s nuclear program;
eliminate its ballistic missile capabilities;
effect regime change;
sever Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance.
As Israel always goes to war without a state-endorsed military strategy it was not difficult for Iran to side-step the personal fantasies of an authoritarian leader.
Iran regains its cyberspace sovereignty
Iran in the middle of the 12-Day War realised that by using the USA satellite navigation system (SatNav) or GPS and WhatsApp it had a modern Trojan Horse in its midst and had failed to be aware of the proverbial gift that the modern Greeks (Americans) bear. It compromised them militarily in the air and on the ground.
Iran had to abandon the USA GPS and WhatsApp. It had to find a larger constellation of satellites with more monitoring stations located in developing countries in Africa and Southeast Asia, i.e., in the Global South serving 165 countries. It needed a more accurate, secure, and reliable SatNav than GPS. The constellation had to be in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) with inertial sensors.
The alternative had to serve Iran’s larger geopolitical strategy – advancing its own trade, oil and gas, infrastructure, diplomatic, and knowledge-based economic interests. It had to complement its soft power influence, technological leadership, and economic relationships – beyond its immediate military needs to avoid defeat. It has to counter USA’s political, economic, media influence. It needed to circumvent crippling sanctions and prevent the crippling of its military operations; and ensure the continued use of its guided munitions and missiles.
Iran-China Cooperation Agreement
Iran had to turn to its 25-year Cooperation Agreement with China (2021), which caters for its technological needs. It gave Iran a responsible basis to dump immediately the USA GPS and WhatsApp and adopt China’s SatNav known as BeiDou. It saved its cyberspace sovereignty and national dignity. It found that BeiDou has strong signals across Africa, Southeast Asia, West Asia (Middle East), and Latin America with a user base in agriculture, transport, and infrastructure sectors that suits Iran’s trade needs and economic interests.
BeiDou has positioning accuracy within one metre for civilian use and one centimetre for military use. In contrast, standard USA GPS has accuracy within three metres. BeiDou’s ground infrastructure provides the most accessible and accurate Positioning, Navigation, Timing (PNT) data of any operating constellation. It already has 56 satellites in LEO while GPS has 31 in Medium-Earth-Orbit (MEO). It has ten times as many monitoring stations globally than GPS does. Its constellation is from the 2020s while GPS constellation is from the 1990s. This new Frontier War is fought without arms, ammunitions, and blood – a distinct departure from old-style colonial Frontier Wars.
BeiDou has demonstrated capability in port management in Pakistan; land planning and river management in Myanmar; precision agriculture and pest control in Laos; civilian urban planning in Brunei; and maritime patrols in Indonesia. Amongst its clients are the shipping giant COSCO, Saudi Arabia, and eleven sub-Saharan nations. Chinese government agencies, state-owned enterprises, and military units that need extra-precise mapping have stopped using the USA GPS for security and privacy reasons. The result of the use of BeiDou shows in the bottom-line. It generated $79.9-billion in economic output in 2024, according to the London Business School. The Harvard Kennedy School – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs report of 2024 states unequivocally that BeiDou’s larger size has a critical advantage over USA GPS.
The splintering of the Battle Front
BeiDou has widened the splintering of the SatNav frontier, to which Russia’s GLONASS, EU’s Galileo, and India’s NavIC added strength. This will ultimately result in the near-total displacement of GPS and USA hegemony (with an alternative to the dollar-dominant SWIFT system). This has already resulted in the further splintering of the GS-GN Frontier. It is an opportunity for the Global South with the strength of its demographics and economics to develop its own standards, rules, and regulations for emerging technologies. Countries would be influenced to embed such technologies in their national infrastructures and economies. The larger Global South geopolitical strategy unfolds organically with increasing clarity and credibility. The technological balance of power is now shifting towards China and, by extension, to the Global South, in which the BRICS nations can build a common sovereign AI ecosystem; China already has invested a state funding of $150-billion.
Iran’s need for J-10C fighter jets
The Iranian Air Force (IAF) has demonstrated its intention to procure China’s Chengdu J-10C multirole fighter jets and advanced AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) equipment for situational awareness and coordination. It would help in a shift in its defence strategy. J-10C is a 4.5-generation combat aircraft with proven capability, with AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar, thrust-vectoring single-engine, advanced avionics, with capability of carrying PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles (with active radar guidance), and designed for air superiority and strike missions, ground attack operations, and electronic warfare tasks – all in high-threat environments.
AWACS systems would further strengthen its command-and-control capabilities and enhance airborne combat management. It would enable more integrated air defensive and offensive operations. It would shift the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and the Levant theatres for the Global South through Iran. It is in the economic interests of all countries to have the Straits of Hormuz reopened.
The new fleet would upgrade its aging fleet of American fighters like F-14, F-5, and F-4, for which it was difficult to procure sanctioned spare parts. (Global Defense News Aerospace: 29 June 2025)
The beginning without end
- Self-responsibility to defend a nation’s sovereignty and national dignity.
A nation’s primary reliance on its own internal strength.
Complementary international support.
Clear-cut politico-military strategic objectives under a single commander-in-chief.
The 12-Day shaking lay in the element of surprise with which Iran counterattacked with precision.
The ability of a small nation to disrupt further the old imperial order.
The deep silent preparedness of Iran to respond.
The need for the popular support of its people.
Scientific cooperation is now a dimension of geopolitical influence.
The 12-Day War clearly redefined the battle-line of the new Frontier War.
The first-time that the metaphor of Ten Days That Shook The World was used was in 1917 when the Russian Revolution overthrew the ruling feudal House of Romanov (1613-1917)
