Strait of Hormuz; The End of America's Illusion of Naval Dominance
Recent conflicts in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz are assessed by regional analysts as more than a fleeting military confrontation. Adnan Abdullah Al-Janid, a Yemeni political analyst, in an analytical memo, has described these events as a tangible sign of the collapse of the American deterrence system in the world's most sensitive waterways.
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According to the Taghrib News Agency, Al-Janid, in his analysis, posing the key question of "How can a force that has faced serious challenges in the Red Sea succeed in the Strait of Hormuz?" describes Washington's recent actions as a gamble born of failure.
According to this analyst, the current American military presence in the Gulf of Oman is a desperate attempt to escape the strategic encirclement formed by Yemeni armed forces from Bab al-Mandab to Hormuz. He believes that instead of adopting diplomatic solutions (such as stopping the war in Lebanon and adhering to the ceasefire), Washington is trying to turn to military confrontation by creating a "naval pincer." An approach that, in his view, will have no result other than repeating previous defeats.
Failure of Billion-Dollar Technology in Shallow Waters
An important part of Al-Janid's analysis is dedicated to the ineffectiveness of advanced equipment in the specific geography of straits. He argues that American destroyers, despite costing billions of dollars, are designed for fighting in open oceans and become vulnerable targets in the shallow waters of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab against guerrilla tactics and intelligent combat engineering.
In this regard, Al-Janid points to an operational example: forcing an American F-16 fighter jet to leave the airspace after violating the Persian Gulf airspace was not merely a show; rather, it was a change in the rules of engagement in favor of Iran's air defense, which completely disrupted the US mission.
Tangible Indicators of the Shift in the Balance of Power
This analytical memo enumerates three clear signs to prove the claim of the end of American naval dominance:
- Paralysis of Shipping Traffic: Reduced traffic in the Strait of Hormuz as a field reality.
- Energy Market Fluctuations: Rising oil prices in global markets immediately after the announcement of the new situation.
- Western Silence and Inaction: The lack of tangible operational response from major powers, which is a kind of implicit acknowledgment of the shift in the balance.
The Sea is No Longer American
In conclusion, Adnan Abdullah Al-Janid describes the current situation not as a fleeting conflict, but as a historical change in the balance of naval power. He emphasizes that the era of cost-free action for Washington has ended, and a new phase has begun in which power is defined not through massive fleets on the surface, but through subsurface deterrence and controlled fire.
According to this analyst, psychological and economic gambles to provoke Iranian public opinion against military pressure have failed, and America is now caught in a historical dilemma between supporting the existence of its allies and protecting the security of its naval fleet.
